Are aspirational drinkers turning to wine and bringing about the demise of the pub-going beer drinker? Ex-landlord and now full-time brewer Dave Bailey of Hardknott thinks so. In his blog post yesterday, he'd even knocked up a graph to illustrate the demise.

I find that the problem with statistics, having spent most of my professional life working with them, is you can invariably find some that fit your precise world view. So, I believe that beer volume in the on-trade is in decline simply because beer drinkers now drink less beer less often. And I've got a graph to prove it:

Source: derived from 'Statistics on Alcohol, England 2010', NHS

According to these figures the consumption of other alcohol types, either at home or outside of it, hasn't risen significantly in the ten-year period during which on-trade beer consumption has fallen.

This doesn't mean I think Dave's argument is flawed or his figures are wrong. It's just that we're differently right.

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